Grab a seat, relax and enjoy thehoopsforum 2011 NFL SEASON PREVIEW:

Let's start off with an analysis of the 2011 draft (courtesy of THE BLEACHER REPORT - http://bleacherreport.com/video )

AFC:



NFC:



Unlike the NBA, we KNOW we will have an upcoming NFL season. The NFLPA and the Owners reached an agreement last month to ensure that. The regular season kicks off on Thursday September 8th in Green Bay and it is shaping up to be one of the most competitive seasons ever. Besides the Packers, there are 6 other teams who will open the season with a starting QB who has won at least one Super Bowl (New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (if Peyton can go), New York Giants, New Orleans and Pittsburgh). Ironically each of the last 4 Super Bowl LOSING QB's had all won a Super Bowl prior to losing (Brady 2008, Warner 2009, P. Manning 2010 & Big Ben 2011). Competition has never been this fierce among World Champions.

Who has the best chance of joining the "Super 7" you ask? Well…

TOP 5 ACTIVE QB's NOT TO WIN A SUPER BOWL:

5. DONOVAN MCNABB, MINNESOTA - This is more of a sentimental pick. McNabb has been to the BIG game and has played in the Conference Title game too many times to count. It sure would be nice to see him cap off his great career with a title but I would not bet a single red cent on it.

4. MATT SCHAUB, HOUSTON - Schaub is coming off of back to back 4,000 yard passing seasons and has an almost identical career passer rating (in the old format, but I will get to that later) 91.5 as Super Bowl XLIV MVP Drew Brees (91.7). Somehow I have a feeling this is the year he leads his team to it's franchises first playoff appearance and possibly more.

3. TONY ROMO, DALLAS - Dallas is arguably the most talented team in the entire NFL but in order for this team to maximize that potential Tony Romo has to produce when it matters most. 8 out of the Top 10 players in NFL history in career QB rating have won at least 1 Super Bowl, 9 out of 10 have won multiple playoff games. Romo is number 4 All Time in QB rating but is just 1-3 in the playoffs and has only been to the Super Bowl in street clothes.

2. MIKE VICK, PHILADELPHIA - The most electrifying PLAYER in the game today has a 2-4 career playoff record mostly because he is just a tad bit better than average as a QB. Look for some out-of-this-world performances in Sept & Oct and great ones in Nov. but come late Dec. you may be wondering why the Eagles traded for Tavares Jackson.

1. PHILIP RIVERS, SAN DIEGO - The Chargers had the league’s top ranked offense AND top ranked defense last season but thanks to some horrendous special teams play and Norv Turner they finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. The man behind the leagues top ranked offensive is Rivers who has strung together 3 straight seasons of at least 4,000 yards passing AND a QB rating higher than 100. Not even the great Peyton Manning and the even greater Tom Brady has ever done that.

NEW QB RATING = ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4699283/introducing-espns-new-qb-rating-system



* QBR is scaled from 0 to 100, with 50 representing league-average performance. For a single game, a rating in the 90s is terrific; last year, Michael Vick's six-TD Monday night symphony against the Redskins topped the charts at 99.8. For a season, any QBR above 65 is Pro Bowl-caliber, and Tom Brady led all starters with a 76.0 QBR in 2010.

* Not all pass completions are created equal, and this new system incorporates game situations and level of difficulty for each throw.

* QBR starts with this insight: Any possession in a football game has an expected value -- the average number of points the team with possession can expect to score, based on all the historical outcomes for teams facing the same down, distance, field position and time remaining. And that means we can evaluate any play by how much it increases or decreases a team's expected point total.

* QBR allocates the points added by every play in an NFL season to each of the players involved, every play. On completed passes, for example, it splits credit among QBs, receivers and blockers, depending on factors such as whether the quarterback was under duress, where he threw the ball, how far it traveled and how many yards the receiver gained after the catch. QBR splits the blame for sacks on quarterbacks and offensive linemen and attributes QB fumbles to QBs. Further, QBR weights every play by its clutch value -- its contribution to a team's chances of winning, given the score of a game, not just to scoring points.

The top 5 QB's in 2010 using ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating:

1. TOM BRADY - 76.0 QBR
2. PEYTON MANNING - 69.5 QBR
3. MATT RYAN - 68.6 QBR
4. AARON RODGERS - 67.9 QBR
5. MIKE VICK - 66.6 QBR

5 YEARS FROM NOW WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT:

MATTHEW STAFFORD, DETROIT (22 years old) - If he can stay healthy and Lions management dedicate themselves to investing in assets around, him he will lead the franchise to a Superbowl.

SAM BRADFORD, ST. LOUIS (23 years old) - He has pretty much nothing much to work with offensively but threw for over 3,500 yards and had more touchdowns than interceptions as a rookie. That has special written all over it.

COLT MCCOY, CLEVELAND (23 years old) - His first three career starts were AT Pittsburgh (2009 Superbowl Champs) , AT New Orleans (2010 Superbowl Champs) and against New England (the team that finished with the best record in the NFL). He went an impressive 2-1 and showed signs of stardom.

MARK SANCHEZ (24 years old) - We may not be talking about him as an ALL TIME great QB but he may be in the ALL TIME discussion among winners.

Now that we know who the top signal callers are today and who they will be tomorrow, who are these guys handing the ball off to?

WHO "RUNS" THE GAME:

In today's NFL there are 3 groups of runners. If a runner does not fall into one of these categories simply put they are not very good. The Elite are the best of the best. They must be accounted for on every play when they are in the game. The G or featured back can give any team the appearance of a solid running game. They are mostly durable and many offenses are built around them due to their consistent effectiveness. The Jack of All Trades RB is not only be a featured back but is good enough to make a difference in multiple phases of the game, primarily the passing game and in short yardage situations. Here's how I rate some of the games most effective RB's.

THE ELITE:

ARIAN FOSTER, HOUSTON - He was the most explosive runner in the league last season winning the rushing title by over 150 yards. If his iffy hamstring holds up he should be a lock for another 1,500 yard rushing season.

CHRIS JOHNSON, TENNESSEE - Even with opposing defenses set up with the intentions of stopping him, Johnson still rushed for over 1,300 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. He is holding out for a bigger salary and I don't blame him. For his impact he is dramatically underpaid.



ADRIAN PETERSON, MINNESOTA - The best combination of power and speed in the NFL toda, he can grind out the tough yards or sprint past the swiftest of defensive backs. He also only fumbled the ball 1 time last season after combining for 10 fumbles over the previous 2.

THE G:

JAMAAL CHARLES, KANSAS CITY - Charles has played 3 NFL seasons, has rushed for over 1,000 twice and has a career 6.0 per carry average. If he gets over 350 carries this season he may break Eric Dickerson's 27 year old record of 2,105 yards rushing in a single season.

MICHAEL TURNER, ATLANTA - 4.1 yards is not that great especially when the team average is 3.8 but scoring 12 of your teams 14 rushing touchdowns is. He is not a game changer but as steady as they come.

MAURICE JONES-DREW, JACKSONVILLE - Some would argue Jones-Drew is elite, after all he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (94.6) and that is fine but Jacksonville is an elite rushing team landing in the top 5 in total rushing yards, yards per game, yards per carry and they led the in rushing 1st downs (19 more than the next team).

RASHARD MENDENHALL, PITTSBURGH - Back to back 1,000 yard seasons for a perennial Super Bowl contender is great his 3.9 yards per carry and Super Bowl cough-up not so much.

THE JACK OF ALL TRADES:

RAY RICE, BALTIMORE - Although Rice has rushed for over 1,200 yards in his last two seasons and could be considered a G, what makes him most dangerous is his contribution to the passing game. He has caught over 60 passes and 500 yards in each of the last two seasons making him one of the most lethal 2 way threats in the league today.

LESEAN MCCOY, PHILADELPHIA - With 1,000 yards rushing and 78 receptions last season McCoy gave QB Mike Vick exactly what he needed to open up passing lanes which resulted in the most productive and efficient passing numbers of Vicks career.

MATT FORTE, CHICAGO - He has played 3 full NFL seasons and has averaged 1,078 yards rushing and 57 receptions. He has proven to be a difference maker in the passing game and a reliable runner.

We know the stud pass catchers already; names like Fitzgerald and the Johnsons (Calvin and Andre) but what QB enjoys the best collection of receivers? There are five teams that stick out to me:

TREMENDOUS TRIOS:



INDIANAPOLIS: The trio in Indy boasts a top 5 wide receiver (Reggie Wayne) and top 5 tight end (Dallas Clark) to go along with an emerging stud in Pierre Garcon.

ATLANTA: Roddy White is one of the best 3 receivers in all of football, Tony Gonzales is on the back end of being the most accomplished tight end in league history and Julio Jones was perhaps the best wide receiver drafted in 2011.

DALLAS: At Romo's disposal is a 1,000 yard wideout (Miles Austin), a 1,000 yard tight end (Jason Whitten) and one of the most dynamic talents in the entire league in Dez Bryant.

GREEN BAY: A total of three 50 catch wideouts led by superstar Greg Jennings who is entering the 2011 season with 3 straight 1,000 yard receiving seasons.

PHILADELPHIA: Last season DeSean Jackson averaged 22 yards per reception which led the NFL, Jeremy Maclin caught a team high 10 touchdowns and RB LeSean McCoy led the team with 78 receptions.

LOOKING FOR THE 2012 SUPER BOWL WINNER:

In my 2010 NFL Season Preview
(http://www.thehoopsforum.com/gm115.aspx) I had the Packers joining the ranks of the elite teams in the NFL by going to the Superbowl unfortunately I had Baltimore beating them in the big game. This season there are 2 teams I think will have an opportunity to join the ranks of the elite.

Here are a few little tidbits:

*SAN DIEGO, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS and N.O. SAINTS were the only teams ranked in the TOP 10 last season in TEAM OFFENSE and TEAM DEFENSE. It is no coincidence that they are also 3 of the past 4 Super Bowl winners on that list.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN: The New England Patriots were the only team to score over 500 points last season. As a matter of fact no other team in the league scored as much as 450 points. Many people (mostly Pats fans) were looking for reasons why this 14-2 team could not win a playoff game; well they gave up the 3rd most passing yards, 3rd most first downs and 6th most yards per play. Balance, Balance, Balance!!!

* In EACH of the last 3 Super Bowls at least one of the Super Bowl participants were not even in the playoffs the previous season.

2009 - PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA* (missed the 2008 playoffs)

2010 - NEW ORLEANS* (missed the 2009 playoffs) vs. INDIANAPOLIS

2011 - PITTSBURGH*(missed the 2010 playoffs) vs. GREEN BAY

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN: If this trend continues look for either the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, HOUSTON TEXANS or the DALLAS COWBOYS to play in SUPER BOWL XLVI.

* There have been 4 WILD CARD teams that have WON the Super Bowl in the last 6 years (that list includes the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers). There were only 2 WILD CARD teams that won the Super Bowl over the previous 20 years.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN: It means that if you are a fan of the NEW YORK JETS or whoever comes in 2nd in the NFC SOUTH (The only division to have 3 teams win 10 or more games) you may be in for a wild and memorable playoff ride.

* You HAVE to be able to run the ball to win the ultimate prize.

Only 3 teams in the TOP 10 in rushing made the playoffs last season and the Super Bowl Champs lost their starting running back 8 carries into last season and finished 24th overall in rushing yards but not every team has the ALL TIME NFL leader in QB rating (98.4) lining up under center for them. Running the ball is no longer essential for a team to win. The ability to pick up rushing yardage when it is NEEDED is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.

* Thanks to http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com Defensive Passer Rating over the last 3 seasons has been one of the most accurate statistics in determining who will win for the Vince Lombardi trophy. In 2010 the Packers and Steelers finished 1 an 2 in Defensive Passer Rating respectively. In 2009 the Saints finished 3rd and in 2008 the Steelers finished 2nd. (This would also explain why a team who finished the regular season 14-2 and set an NFL record for giveaway/takeaway would not even win a playoff game. They were ranked 20th in Defensive Passer Rating in 2010.)

IMO:

1. The new kickoff rule which moves the ball up from the 30 to the 35 is going to all but eliminate one of the most exciting plays in the game. This is a TERRIBLE decision by the competition committee but I do understand WHY they did it.

2. The Tim Tebow fiasco in Denver is not a good look. The guy who is primarily responsible for Tebow being in Denver now works for the Rams so either trade him or cut him because it is obvious he is not in the plans.

3. Mark Ingram is a G. He should be starting in N.O. by week 4.

With all that said here is how I see the season breaking down:

PREDICTIONS AND AWARDS:

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

MATT SCHAUB, HOUSTON - He is coming off of consecutive 4,000 passing seasons and has the best WR, RB combo in the league at his disposal. If he can finally avoid the shakes in the 4th quarter, he will lead the Texans to their first ever playoff birth.

DARREN MCFADDEN, L.A. RAIDERS - McFadden averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season which was 2nd in the NFL for all RB's who carried the ball more than 220 times. If he can manage to stay healthy he will make the leap to G status and possibly elite this season.

HAKEEM NICKS, N.Y. GIANTS - Nicks is approaching "must double" territory when his QB is not throwing to the opposition he is usually a most productive target.

NFL MVP:

TOM BRADY, NEW ENGLAND - If New England's defense can be a top 10 unit this season the Patriots may not lose a regular season game. That's right, I said it.

Also look out for Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub and my dark horse Adrian Peterson to be in the discussion.

NFL DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR:

NDAMUKONG SUH, DETROIT- I absolutely loved James Harrison until he broke the bank. A.J. Hawk and Jarod Mayo will also have tremendous years but Suh is the present and future of defensive havoc in the NFL. If the Lions contend for a playoff birth he should be a runaway winner.

AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

THE ELITE:

NEW ENGLAND - They were 14-2 last season but have lost 3 straight playoff games.

PITTSBURGH - They have been to 3 of the last 6 Super Bowls.

THE VERY VERY GOOD:

SAN DIEGO - Sooner or later Norv Turner will prove to be an asset instead of a liability.

NEW YORK JETS - Mark Sanchez has been to the AFC title game every year he's been in the league.

BALTIMORE - Joe Flacco has won at least 1 playoff game every year he's been in the league.

THE WILDCARDS:

*INDIANAPOLIS - *assuming Peyton Manning is 90% of what he normally is. HOUSTON - They are in a great position to make some noise this year.

(Outside looking in)
KANSAS CITY - I will come right out and say it: I DO NOT TRUST MATT CASSELL.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP:

NEW ENGLAND VS. SAN DIEGO - With Peyton Manning on the mend, Brady and Rivers are the two best QB's in the AFC. The Pats are more stable on the sidelines which will prove to be the difference.

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTION:

THE ELITE:

GREEN BAY - The defending champs should be even better with the returns of Grant and Finely but it is extremely difficult to get to the Superbowl in consecutive seasons, forget about winning it.

PHILADELPHIA - With an incredible offseason of acquisitions (on paper) the Eagles look extremely imposing.

THE VERY VERY GOOD:

ATLANTA - Matt Ryan is 0-2 in his career in the playoffs. NEW ORLEANS - Last season Drew Bress threw a career high 22 interceptions perhaps suffering from a Superbowl hangover.

THE WILDCARDS:

DALLAS - The Boys went 5-3 after a 1-7 start and lost the three games by a total of 7 points.

SEATTLE - The best of the worst division in football. Each team in the division finished with minus point differential for the entire 2010 season.

(Outside looking in)
TAMPA BAY - Tampa must improve on their 20th ranked offense if they are going to be legit contenders.

NY GIANTS - Injuries aside, this team can make offseason plans now if Eli is going to throws 25 interceptions again.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP:

DALLAS VS. ATLANTA - The Cowboys are my pick in the NFC mostly because I think Romo will finally put it all together this season. Also the defense is much improved and I think Felix Jones will have a career year. Matt Ryan is a good QB but I still do not see the "it" in him to win the big one yet. I do however see that "it" in Romo.

SUPERBOWL XLVI:

NEW ENGLAND VS. DALLAS - The Cowboys are due to break through after some less than memorable season finished over the last 3 years due to injury, ineptness and some plain old bad luck. This year will be different and the embarrassment of last season will add fuel to their championship fire but they will come up short of the ultimate goal in the end. A "flawed" 2010 Patriots team went 14-2 and looked as efficient offensively as any team I have ever seen; that would include the 2007 version of the Pats that would find themselves 18-0 and with a 4th quarter lead in the Superbowl. The Patriots will be better this season than last. I mean 15-1 or 16-0 better. With an improved defensive line and a more experience secondary this team has all the pieces in place to once again chase history.

SUPERBOWL XLVI CHAMPIONS:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS.

*stats courtesy of http://www.pro-football-reference.com
*video courtesy of http://www.youtube.com
*QBR courtesy of http://www.espn.com

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